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| Notes on the Accuracy of Emission Estimates |
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A detailed analysis of the uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions estimates has been published in
'Treatment of Uncertainties for National Estimates of Greenhouse Gas Emissions', which may be viewed
on the research reports page of the Air Quality Archive website at www.airquality.co.uk. The analysis updated to the 2000 Inventory indicates that uncertainties in carbon dioxide emissions
estimates are ± 2 per cent, and in methane emissions, ± 20 per cent. The uncertainty in emissions of the
'basket' of six greenhouse gases weighted by global warming potential is about ± 15 per cent.
For other air pollutants, new work (publication in preparation) has involved a similar detailed analysis of
uncertainty in emission estimates in the 1999 and 2000 versions of the NAEI. Based on this work, uncertainties
are estimated to be as follows: sulphur dioxide ± 4 per cent; nitrogen oxides ± 7 per cent;
NMVOC emissions ± 10 per cent; lead emissions ± 10 per cent; ammonia emissions ±
20 per cent; carbon monoxide emissions ± 20 per cent, black smoke emissions +75 to -50 per cent.
Although for any given year considerable uncertainties can surround the emission estimates for a given pollutant,
trends over time are likely to be more reliable. UK national emission estimates are updated annually and any
developments in methodology are applied retrospectively to earlier years. Adjustments in the methodology are
made to accommodate new technical information and to improve international comparability. |
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| Contact Us |
| Questions & Comments: |
Email: air.emissions@aeat.co.uk |
| Local Authority Support: |
Tel: 0870 190 6050 Calls charged at national rate
(out of hours answerphone) |
| Terms and Conditions |
This service is part of the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory maintained by AEA on behalf of Defra and the Devolved Administrations.
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